Catastrophic Risk from Rapid Developments in Artificial Intelligence: what is yet to be addressed and how might New Zealand policymakers respond?

This article describes important possible scenarios in which rapid advances in artificial intelligence (AI) pose multiple risks, including to democracy and for inter-state conflict. In parallel with other countries, New Zealand needs policies to monitor, anticipate and mitigate global catastrophic and existential risks from advanced new technologies. A dedicated policy capacity could translate emerging research and policy options into the New Zealand context. It could also identify how New Zealand could best contribute to global solutions. It is desirable that the potential benefits of AI are realised, while the risks are also mitigated to the greatest extent possible

Anticipatory Governance for Preventing and Mitigating Catastrophic and Existential Risks

The world faces many large-scale risks. We describe these global catastrophic and existential risks and identify some challenges in governing the prevention and mitigation of such risks. We identify that risk reduction activity in Aotearoa New Zealand has not appropriately addressed these threats. On the basis of the challenges identified, we then deduce the desired features and functions of an entity for effectively governing risk reduction approaches. We argue for an entity that is: anticipatory, central/aggregating, coordinating, apolitical, transparent, adaptive and accountable. We offer structural options for such an entity and outline the merits of several options

British Columbia\u27s New Family Law on Guardianship, Relocation, and Family Violence: The First Year of Judicial Interpretation

This article reviews the jurisprudence that emerged during the first year of the new family law statute in British Columbia, Canada. The Family Law Act came into force in March 2013 and represented a major overhaul of family law in that province. The goal was to reflect social change, to place children first, and to keep families safe. The language of custody and access was changed to parental responsibilities and parenting time . The best interests of the child test was defined in more detail. As well, family violence was dealt with explicitly, and norms on relocation were introduced, with burdens of proof depending on the extent to which parenting is shared. Despite the promising language in the statute, the first year of case law indicates some concerns about the early interpretation of the legislation in the courts. The article is co-authored with Matt Ledger

Discovery of a ~5 day characteristic timescale in the Kepler power spectrum of Zw 229-15

We present time series analyses of the full Kepler dataset of Zw 229-15. This Kepler light curve --- with a baseline greater than three years, composed of virtually continuous, evenly sampled 30-minute measurements --- is unprecedented in its quality and precision. We utilize two methods of power spectral analysis to investigate the optical variability and search for evidence of a bend frequency associated with a characteristic optical variability timescale. Each method yields similar results. The first interpolates across data gaps to use the standard Fourier periodogram. The second, using the CARMA-based time-domain modeling technique of Kelly et al. (2014), does not need evenly-sampled data. Both methods find excess power at high frequencies that may be due to Kepler instrumental effects. More importantly both also show strong bends ({\Delta}{\alpha} ~ 2) at timescales of ~5 days, a feature similar to those seen in the X-ray PSDs of AGN but never before in the optical. This observed ~5 day timescale may be associated with one of several physical processes potentially responsible for the variability. A plausible association could be made with light-crossing, dynamical or thermal timescales, depending on the assumed value of the accretion disk size and on unobserved disk parameters such as {\alpha} and H/R. This timescale is not consistent with the viscous timescale, which would be years in a ~10^7 Solar mass AGN such as Zw 229-15. However there must be a second bend on long (>~1 year) timescales, and that feature could be associated with the viscous timescale.Comment: 10 pages, 5 figures, 1 table. To appear in the Astrophysical Journal, Part

The Kepler Light Curves of AGN: A Detailed Analysis

We present a comprehensive analysis of 21 light curves of Type 1 AGN from the Kepler spacecraft. First, we describe the necessity and development of a customized pipeline for treating Kepler data of stochastically variable sources like AGN. We then present the light curves, power spectral density functions (PSDs), and flux histograms. The light curves display an astonishing variety of behaviors, many of which would not be detected in ground-based studies, including switching between distinct flux levels. Six objects exhibit PSD flattening at characteristic timescales which roughly correlate with black hole mass. These timescales are consistent with orbital timescales or freefall accretion timescales. We check for correlations of variability and high-frequency PSD slope with accretion rate, black hole mass, redshift and luminosity. We find that bolometric luminosity is anticorrelated with both variability and steepness of the PSD slope. We do not find evidence of the linear rms-flux relationships or lognormal flux distributions found in X-ray AGN light curves, indicating that reprocessing is not a significant contributor to optical variability at the 0.1-10% level.Comment: 39 pages including 2 appendices. Accepted for Publication in the Astrophysical Journal, with higher resolution figure

Public Health Aspects of the Covid-19 Response and Opportunities for the Post-Pandemic Era

This article takes a public health perspective on New Zealand’s pandemic preparations, its pandemic response, and the successful outcome (as of June 2020) of its Covid-19 elimination strategy. The health outcome appears to be the best in the OECD, but some other countries made better use of certain control strategies. In the postpandemic era there are many emerging opportunities for society to be gained by embedding better plans for controlling future emerging diseases, strengthening public health infrastructure and consolidating the evident benefits of reduced pollution during the lockdown

Impacts of Irrigation Technology, Irrigation Rate, and Drought-Tolerant Genetics on Silage Corn Production

Many studies have examined individual water-saving management practices for corn (Zea mays L.), but few studies have looked at how combinations of practices might further enhance water optimization. The research objectives of this paper were to evaluate the impact of irrigation technology, irrigation rate, and crop genetics, as well as their interactions, on silage corn yield and forage quality. Trials were conducted in three Utah locations from 2019 through 2021. The results from five site-years indicated that the best water optimization practices varied by site-year. Low-elevation sprinklers commonly applied water more efficiently, with four of the five site-years having improved or equivalent yield compared to mid-elevation sprinklers. Irrigation rate reductions and yield losses were not proportional, as a 25% irrigation reduction resulted in better silage quality and a 7% average yield loss across site-years. Further, targeted deficit irrigation (less water during vegetation and more during maturation) was inferior to a uniform deficit during all growth stages. Drought-tolerant genetics often maintained but did not improve yield in extreme water stress environments compared to non-DT genetics. No cumulative benefits were observed when combining irrigation technology, rate, and DT genetics. Irrigation technology had the greatest potential of the three factors to optimize water use in silage corn production in the Western U.S. region

Guide to Drought Tolerance of Utah Field Crops

Crop variety selection is one of the most important choices on the farm. Crop genetics determine a significant portion of the yield potential and resource use efficiency. Crop types and genetics that use water more efficiently will become increasingly important as water becomes scarcer. Throughout Utah and the Western United States, water availability is decreasing due to various factors, including reduced snowpack and rapid urban growth. Alfalfa, other hay, small grains, and corn are grown on more acres than any other crops in Utah and much of the Intermountain West. These crops all have varieties, hybrids, and cultivars with the potential for more efficient water use while mitigating yield loss. Navigating these options and understanding various mechanisms and effectiveness can be a challenge. This guide will address some of the primary mechanisms, options, and effectiveness of crop genetics for improved water use efficiency

MMIC Amplifiers for 90 to 130 GHz

This brief describes two monolithic microwave integrated-circuit (MMIC) amplifier chips optimized to function in the frequency range of 90 to 130 GHz, covering nearly all of F-band (90 - 140 GHz). These amplifiers were designed specifically for local-oscillator units in astronomical radio telescopes such as the Atacama Large Millimeter Array (ALMA). They could also be readily adapted for use in electronic test equipment, automotive radar systems, and communications systems that operate between 90 and 130 GHz